Crest of a wave?

McKinsey is suggesting that the recent sluggish productivity performance in the developed world might be coming to an end.  We might soon see productivity rises like we did before the economic downturn – of the order of 2% per year.

Are they right?

Only time will tell.  The time is right – but are the conditions right?  Has all that quantitative easing improved the productivity infrastructure and prepared businesses for an upturn?  Have we been developing skills? Are there technological breakthroughs in the pipeline?

(The answers are maybe, maybe and maybe – but, as we know from history, cycles occur for no good reason – ups and downs …. so perhaps the time is right and enough has been done to ride a wave.  So much of economics is down to confidence anyway that if McKinsey can convince enough people they are right, it will probably become a self-fulfilling prophecy. )

So good for McKinsey.  I’m with them.  Let’s all talk higher productivity – and then deliver what measures we can in our own sphere to make it happen.

See you in the boom times.

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